Maricopa County, AZ

Maricopa County is the 4th most populous county in the United States and the most populous in Arizona, making up 62% (4.4mil) of the state population. Due to its size and varied demographics, the county is a politically significant center and statewide bellwether, voting for the statewide winning candidate in all elections except 1996. It has voted consistently Republican since 1952 but grew increasingly Democratic until 2020 where it flipped to Biden, then back to Trump in 2024.

Tidy Precinct Votes

This chart shows the president-senate differences for each party and precinct in Maricopa County. In 2024, the Arizona party tickets for presidential and senate candidates were (R) Donald Trump and Kari Lake and (D) Kamala Harris and Ruben Gallego.

What's weird

In only 7 of 936 precincts did Harris have more votes than Gallego, and only 2 of those where Trump had less than Lake. While Lake was a fairly unpopular candidate, what stands out is the sheer uniformity across all precincts.

For comparison, in 2020, Biden had 108 precincts where he outperformed the Senate candidate. In all 108, Trump had less votes than the Senate candidate.

Election Day Differences

Here are Maricopa County's Early Voting and Election Day votes by population and election year. 

What's weird

Micro-Targets

Looking closer at inconsistent drop-off trends (with both Senate and House candidates) and changes in voter population between 2020 and 2024, we can more accurately determine which precincts may have been affected by vote manipulation.

What's weird

Maricopa County spans an area of 132 by 103 miles. The 10 most affected precincts are all clustered within an 8-mile radius (or 0.5% of Maricopa's total land area).

Prop 139

Prop 139 is the proposition to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution in Arizona. It passed statewide with a 61% approval rate. In Maricopa County, it got 1.22 million votes in favor and 737k opposed. It was consistently the most voted-upon measure on all of the ballots.

What's weird

This all implies the excess ballots were added or altered in some way.

[Speculation] In swing states based on unofficial machine counts, not one had a margin within a recount threshold, automatic or requested. Excess ballots would help ensure the margins were always beyond automatic recount thresholds.

Comparisons to other states