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Clark County contains nearly three-quarters of Nevada's population and plays a significant role in determining the winner of the state's electoral votes in presidential elections. It leans marginally Democratic for presidential races but has swung both ways for statewide elections. In late December 2024, Clark County publicly posted their Cast Vote Record (CVR) with ballot-level votes, including voting channel, tabulator, and party, enabling a much more accurate examination of the data.
The "Russian Tail"
The "Russian Tail"
Vote distribution among political parties
In Clark County, Election Day president-senate differences are normally distributed for Democrats (yellow) but show a fat tail for Republicans (orange), reminiscent of election interference in Georgian elections.
Turnout vs. "Yes" votes
Clark County's Early Voting numbers also show a drastic spike in Trump votes at higher turnout levels, much like Russia's 2020 referendum.
Vote-Splitting By Volume
Vote-Splitting By Volume
2020
2020
2024
2024
Some Useful Definitions
Some Useful Definitions
Tabulators - machines in polling locations that read the ballot and record a vote for each selected candidate
These charts show that in Clark County, there is a strong correlation between how many ballots are counted by a tabulator and a stark 60/40 split between votes for Trump/Harris.
What's weird
What's weird
Not geographically-based: Each precinct's votes are split between nearly a thousand tabulators, so each tabulator is getting pseudo-randomly distributed votes throughout Clark County.
Not due to turnout: Trump’s votes in Clark County came mostly from early voters (234k), followed by mail-in voters (161k), then Election Day voters contributing 92k votes—almost the same as Kamala’s 98k.
This suggests that as a tabulator keeps counting ballots and hits a certain threshold, some votes are flipped or added to Trump's total, while votes for Harris are artificially kept at a ceiling of 40%.
VOte Padding
VOte Padding
Some Useful Definitions
Some Useful Definitions
Bullet ballot (B) - presidential vote only, aka top-of-the-ticket
Split ticket (S) - voted for president of one party, senator of another
Tabulators - machines in polling locations that read the ballot and record a vote for each selected candidate
This chart shows for each tabulator, what percent of Trump voters cast a bullet ballot (B) or split-ticket (S), and what percent of Harris voters did the same. Take a look at the bottom two Linear lines (Trump B&S, Harris B&S) in the chart.
For Harris (blue), no matter what percent of the vote she gets, she receives the same proportion of bullet ballot and split-ticket votes.
For Trump (red), the fewer votes he gets, the more frequent the bullet ballots and split-tickets.
What's weird
What's weird
This suggests Trump voters in more Democratic-leaning areas are much more likely to cast bullet ballots and split-ticket votes. That defies logic, and indicates some fixed percentage is being added or flipped to these types of votes. If the bullet ballot and split-ticket percentages were actually due to voter behavior, we would expect these to be fairly constant, with some random variance.
Further breakdowns
Further breakdowns
Overall, Trump's split vote favored him at 5.3% (vs. 1.9% in 2020), whereas Harris' split vote was 1.6% (vs. 1% in 2020).
Lopsided independent split
74% of alternative political party voters (assumed) voted for Trump, making up 20% of his vote total
26% of alternative political party voters (assumed) voted for Harris, making up 7% of her vote total
Republicans over-performed their historic early vote behavior and underperformed their election day behavior, while Democratic voting behavior closely resembled historic voting behavior.
48% of Trump's votes came from early voters
52% of Harris' votes were from mail-in votes
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