Clark County, NV

Clark County contains nearly three-quarters of Nevada's population and plays a significant role in determining the winner of the state's electoral votes in presidential elections. It leans marginally Democratic for presidential races but has swung both ways for statewide elections. In late December 2024, Clark County publicly posted their Cast Vote Record (CVR) with ballot-level votes, including voting channel, tabulator, and party, enabling a much more accurate examination of the data.

The "Russian Tail"

Vote distribution among political parties

In Clark County, Election Day president-senate differences are normally distributed for Democrats (yellow) but show a fat tail for Republicans (orange), reminiscent of election interference in Georgian elections.

Turnout vs. "Yes" votes

Clark County's Early Voting numbers also show a drastic spike in Trump votes at higher turnout levels, much like Russia's 2020 referendum.

Vote-Splitting By Volume

2020

2024

Some Useful Definitions

These charts show that in Clark County, there is a strong correlation between how many ballots are counted by a tabulator and a stark 60/40 split between votes for Trump/Harris

What's weird

This suggests that as a tabulator keeps counting ballots and hits a certain threshold, some votes are flipped or added to Trump's total, while votes for Harris are artificially kept at a ceiling of 40%. 

VOte Padding

Some Useful Definitions

This chart shows for each tabulator, what percent of Trump voters cast a bullet ballot (B) or split-ticket (S), and what percent of Harris voters did the same. Take a look at the bottom two Linear lines (Trump B&S, Harris B&S) in the chart. 

What's weird

This suggests Trump voters in more Democratic-leaning areas are much more likely to cast bullet ballots and split-ticket votes. That defies logic, and indicates some fixed percentage is being added or flipped to these types of votes. If the bullet ballot and split-ticket percentages were actually due to voter behavior, we would expect these to be fairly constant, with some random variance.

Further breakdowns

Overall, Trump's split vote favored him at 5.3% (vs. 1.9% in 2020), whereas Harris' split vote was 1.6% (vs. 1% in 2020).

Lopsided independent split

Republicans over-performed their historic early vote behavior and underperformed their election day behavior, while Democratic voting behavior closely resembled historic voting behavior.


Source